add contant baseline model

ensembles/models/unweighted.R

@@ -9,6 +9,9 @@ target_date <- as.Date(readRDS(here("data", "target_date.rds")))
 source(here("utils", "load_submissions.R"))
 forecasts <- load_submissions(target_date, "all-models", summarise = FALSE)
 
+# filter out baseline models for ensembling
+forecasts <- forecasts[!(model == "Baseline")]
+
 # Make ensembles ----------------------------------------------------------
 cols <- setdiff(colnames(forecasts), c("value", "model"))
 mean <- copy(forecasts)[, .(value = mean(value)), by = cols]

ensembles/models/weighted.R

@@ -28,6 +28,9 @@ forecasts <- list.files(here("submissions", "all-models"))
 forecasts <- map(forecasts, ~ fread(here("submissions", "all-models", .)))
 forecasts <- rbindlist(forecasts)[grepl("inc", target)]
 
+# filter out baseline models for ensembling
+forecasts <- forecasts[!(model == "Baseline")]
+
 # get current forecast
 current_forecasts <- forecasts[forecast_date == target_date]
 # exclude US from training