modeltime 0.7.0

Group-Wise Accuracy and Confidence Interval by Time Series ID

We've expanded Panel Data functionality to produce model accuracy and confidence interval estimates by a Time Series ID (#114). This is useful when you have a Global Model that produces forecasts for more than one time series. You can more easily obtain grouped accuracy and confidence interval estimates.

• modeltime_calibrate(): Gains an id argument that is a quoted column name. This identifies that the residuals should be tracked by an time series identifier feature that indicates the time series groups.

• modeltime_accuracy(): Gains a acc_by_id argument that is TRUE/FALSE. If the data has been calibrated with id, then the user can return local model accuracy by the identifier column. The accuracy data frame will return a row for each combination of Model ID and Time Series ID.

• modeltime_forecast(): Gains a conf_by_id argument that is TRUE/FALSE. If the data has been calibrated with id, then the user can return local model confidence by the identifier column. The forecast data frame will return an extra column indicating the identifier column. The confidence intervals will be adjusted based on the local time series ID variance instead of the global model variance.

New Vignette

Forecasting Panel Data

New Algorithms

THIEF: Temporal Hierarchical Forecasting

• temporal_hierarchy(): Implements the thief package by Rob Hyndman and
  Nikolaos Kourentzes for "Temporal HIErarchical Forecasting". #117

Bug Fixes

• Issue #111: Fix bug with modeltime_fit_workflowset() where the workflowset (wflw_id) order was not maintained.