VERA meteor strike

Simple empirical forecasts for the VERA forecasting challenge (https://www.ltreb-reservoirs.org/)

Models currently set up:

• asl.auto.arima
• asl.ets
• asl.tbats
• asl.temp.lm
• asl.met.lm
• asl.met.lm.step

TO DO:

1. Figure out if we want to add auto_adam, nnetar
2. Load inflow targets

To add new models

1. Copy an existing model folder (I suggest ARIMA for a time series model or temp_lm for a model with meteorology)
2. Update forecast_model.R to include your new model (most of the script should be able to stay the same)
3. Update the the file paths in rerun_forecasts.R and run_forecast.R to source the correct forecast_model.R script
4. Run everything in your forecast_model.R file, then open .R/generate_tg_forecast and run the lines of this function individually to make sure everything works.
5. If that worked, you should be pretty much set up! To create automation, go to .github/workflows and copy one of the do_prediction_XXX.yml files. Update the model name and file path for your new model.
6. Push changes and create automation