word_prediction.md

Predictive Text with Markov Chain Backoff Models

author: Mark St. John date: Nov 29, 2018 autosize: true

The predictive text algorithm

• Frequencies of 1--5 gram phrases were calculated, smoothed (Good-Turing Discounting) and stored in tables
  • 5000 most frequent words appearing in 10000 sentences randonmly sampled each of News, Blogs and Twitter sources (corpus provided by SwiftKey).
• The Markov Chain "Backoff" approach:
  • Provided text -> strip n-gram from the end (up to 4 words) -> lookup in the stored n-gram frequency tables
  • Note, if the last word is incomplete (no trailing space or punctuation) prediction is for the current last word, not the next word
  • Search through the n-gram frequency tables (from greatest to least n) until matches are found
  • Return the last words of the 4 most frequent n+1-grams in decreasing order of frequency

Algorithm performance

Performance was measured by creating a test set of 2--5 grams from 3000 sentences randomly sampled from the corpus (withheld from model training) and measuring how often the actual next word was predicted.

Results

• Correct prediction 14% of the time
• Actual next word in the top four algorithm predictions 25% of the time
• Average time required for a prediction was 0.2 seconds on low-end hardware, > 5 years old

Next word algorithm in use

The Predictive Text App provides a web interface to use the algorithm.

Competing approaches & conclusions

Alternative approaches considered:

• Markov Chain Backoff + Naive Bayes source prediction (News, Blogs or Twitter)
  • Perfomance penalty, no measurable improvement in predictions
• Co-occurence model based on the fcm() function of the quanteda R package
  • Significantly lower success rates
• Rare word co-occurence weighting
  • Performance penalty yet did not produce improved results

Conclusion

Success of the Markov Chain Backoff approach lies in storing a massive amount of training data (the corpus) in compact frequency lookup tables.