mrp.bib

@article{little1993post,
  title={Post-stratification: a modeler's perspective},
  author={Little, Roderick JA},
  journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  volume={88},
  number={423},
  pages={1001--1012},
  year={1993},
  publisher={Taylor \& Francis Group}
}
@article{park2004bayesian,
  title={Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratification: state-level estimates from national polls},
  author={Park, David K and Gelman, Andrew and Bafumi, Joseph},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  volume={12},
  number={4},
  pages={375--385},
  year={2004},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}

@article{shirley2015hierarchical,
  title={Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in US death penalty public opinion},
  author={Shirley, Kenneth E and Gelman, Andrew},
  journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)},
  volume={178},
  number={1},
  pages={1--28},
  year={2015},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

  @article{barr2013random,
  title={Random effects structure for confirmatory hypothesis testing: Keep it maximal},
  author={Barr, Dale J and Levy, Roger and Scheepers, Christoph and Tily, Harry J},
  journal={Journal of memory and language},
  volume={68},
  number={3},
  pages={255--278},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}

@article{ghitza2013deep,
  title={Deep interactions with MRP: Election turnout and voting patterns among small electoral subgroups},
  author={Ghitza, Yair and Gelman, Andrew},
  journal={American Journal of Political Science},
  volume={57},
  number={3},
  pages={762--776},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{lei20172008,
  title={The 2008 election: A preregistered replication analysis},
  author={Lei, Rayleigh and Gelman, Andrew and Ghitza, Yair},
  journal={Statistics and Public Policy},
  pages={1--8},
  year={2017},
  publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}

@article{gelman2007struggles,
  title={Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling},
  author={Gelman, Andrew},
  journal={Statistical Science},
  pages={153--164},
  year={2007},
  publisher={JSTOR}
}

@article{lax2009should,
  title={How should we estimate public opinion in the states\?},
  author={Lax, Jeffrey R and Phillips, Justin H},
  journal={American Journal of Political Science},
  volume={53},
  number={1},
  pages={107--121},
  year={2009},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{park2004bayesian,
  title={Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratification: state-level estimates from national polls},
  author={Park, David K and Gelman, Andrew and Bafumi, Joseph},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  volume={12},
  number={4},
  pages={375--385},
  year={2004},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}

@article{gelman2005analysis,
  title={Analysis of variance-why it is more important than ever},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and others},
  journal={The annals of statistics},
  volume={33},
  number={1},
  pages={1--53},
  year={2005},
  publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
}
@article{si2017bayesian,
  title={Bayesian hierarchical weighting adjustment and survey inference},
  author={Si, Yajuan and Trangucci, Rob and Gabry, Jonah Sol and Gelman, Andrew},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:1707.08220},
  year={2017}
}

@article{lax2009states,
  title={How should we estimate public opinion in the states?},
  author={Lax, Jeffrey R and Phillips, Justin H},
  journal={American Journal of Political Science},
  volume={53},
  number={1},
  pages={107--121},
  year={2009},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{lax2009gay,
  title={Gay rights in the states: Public opinion and policy responsiveness},
  author={Lax, Jeffrey R and Phillips, Justin H},
  journal={American Political Science Review},
  volume={103},
  number={3},
  pages={367--386},
  year={2009},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{wang2015xbox,
  title={Forecasting elections with non-representative polls},
  author={Wang, Wei and Rothschild, David and Goel, Sharad and Gelman, Andrew},
  journal={International Journal of Forecasting},
  volume={31},
  number={3},
  pages={980--991},
  year={2015},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{buttice2013mrp,
  title={How does multilevel regression and poststratification perform with conventional national surveys?},
  author={Buttice, Matthew K and Highton, Benjamin},
  journal={Political analysis},
  volume={21},
  number={4},
  year={2013}
}
@article{kastellec2010primer,
  title={Estimating state public opinion with multi-level regression and poststratification using R},
  author={Kastellec, Jonathan P and Lax, Jeffrey R and Phillips, Justin H},
  journal={Unpublished manuscript, Princeton University},
  year={2010}
}
@book{gelman2007data,
  title={Data analysis using regression and multilevelhierarchical models},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer},
  volume={1},
  year={2007},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press New York, NY, USA}
}
@article{downes2018multilevel,
  title={Multilevel regression and poststratification: A modeling approach to estimating population quantities from highly selected survey samples},
  author={Downes, Marnie and Gurrin, Lyle C and English, Dallas R and Pirkis, Jane and Currier, Dianne and Spittal, Matthew J and Carlin, John B},
  journal={American journal of epidemiology},
  volume={187},
  number={8},
  pages={1780--1790},
  year={2018},
  publisher={Oxford University Press}
}
@article{kiewiet2018predicting,
  title={Predicting state presidential election results using national tracking polls and multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP)},
  author={Kiewiet de Jonge, Chad P and Langer, Gary and Sinozich, Sofi},
  journal={Public Opinion Quarterly},
  volume={82},
  number={3},
  pages={419--446},
  year={2018},
  publisher={Oxford University Press US}
}
@book{gelman2020raos,
  title={Regression and other stories},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer and Vehtari, Aki},
  year={2020},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@book{mcelreath2020statistical,
  title={Statistical rethinking: A Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan},
  author={McElreath, Richard},
  year={2020},
  publisher={CRC press}
}
@book{gelman2006data,
  title={Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer},
  year={2006},
  publisher={Cambridge university press}
}
@article{gao2020structuredpriors,
  title={Improving multilevel regression and poststratification with structured priors},
  author={Gao, Yuxiang and Kennedy, Lauren and Simpson, Daniel and Gelman, Andrew and others},
  journal={Bayesian Analysis},
  year={2020},
  publisher={International Society for Bayesian Analysis}
}
@article{betancourt2017hmc,
  title={A conceptual introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo},
  author={Betancourt, Michael},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:1701.02434},
  year={2017}
}
@article{kastellec2015polarizing,
  title={Polarizing the electoral connection: Partisan representation in Supreme Court confirmation politics},
  author={Kastellec, Jonathan P and Lax, Jeffrey R and Malecki, Michael and Phillips, Justin H},
  journal={The journal of politics},
  volume={77},
  number={3},
  pages={787--804},
  year={2015},
  publisher={University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}
}
@article{tausanovitch2013ideal,
  title={Measuring constituent policy preferences in congress, state legislatures, and cities},
  author={Tausanovitch, Chris and Warshaw, Christopher},
  journal={The Journal of Politics},
  volume={75},
  number={2},
  pages={330--342},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press New York, USA}
}
@article{caughey2015dynamic,
  title={Dynamic estimation of latent opinion using a hierarchical group-level IRT model},
  author={Caughey, Devin and Warshaw, Christopher},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  pages={197--211},
  year={2015},
  publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{caughey2018policy,
  title={Policy preferences and policy change: Dynamic responsiveness in the American states, 1936--2014},
  author={Caughey, Devin and Warshaw, Christopher},
  year={2018},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}
}
@article{bergquist2019does,
  title={Does global warming increase public concern about climate change?},
  author={Bergquist, Parrish and Warshaw, Christopher},
  journal={The Journal of Politics},
  volume={81},
  number={2},
  pages={686--691},
  year={2019},
  publisher={The University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL}
}
@article{bisbee2019barp,
  title={BARP: Improving Mister P Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees},
  author={Bisbee, James},
  journal={American Political Science Review},
  volume={113},
  number={4},
  pages={1060--1065},
  year={2019},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{bafumi2005practical,
  title={Practical issues in implementing and understanding Bayesian ideal point estimation},
  author={Bafumi, Joseph and Gelman, Andrew and Park, David K and Kaplan, Noah},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  volume={13},
  number={2},
  pages={171--187},
  year={2005},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{clinton2004statistical,
  title={The statistical analysis of roll call data},
  author={Clinton, Joshua and Jackman, Simon and Rivers, Douglas},
  journal={American Political Science Review},
  pages={355--370},
  year={2004},
  publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{tausanovitch2014representation,
  title={Representation in municipal government},
  author={Tausanovitch, Chris and Warshaw, Christopher},
  journal={American Political Science Review},
  pages={605--641},
  year={2014},
  publisher={JSTOR}
}
@book{ipums2020,
  title={IPUMS USA: Version 10.0 [dataset]},
  author={Ruggles, Steven and Flood, Sarah and Goeken, Ronald and Grover, Josiah and Meyer, Erin and Pacas, Jose and Sobek, Matthew},
  volume={},
  year={2020},
  publisher={Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2020}
}
@article{ornstein2020stacked,
  title={Stacked Regression and Poststratification},
  author={Ornstein, Joseph T},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  volume={28},
  number={2},
  pages={293--301},
  year={2020},
  publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{gelman1997poststratification,
  title={Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and Little, Thomas C},
  year={1997},
  journal={Survey Methodology},
  volume={23},
  number={2},
  pages={127–-35}
}
@article{fay1979estimates,
  title={Estimates of income for small places: an application of James-Stein procedures to census data},
  author={Fay, Robert E and Herriot, Roger A},
  journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  volume={74},
  number={366a},
  pages={269--277},
  year={1979},
  publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@data{2018CCES,
author = {Schaffner, Brian and Ansolabehere, Stephen and Luks, Sam},
publisher = {Harvard Dataverse},
title = {CCES 2018},
year = {2018},
url = {https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZSBZ7K}
}